"Dream School" by Jeffrey Selingo - MCA Notes and Takeaways

The book is a bid to reorient the college search, encouraging students and families to look beyond rankings for schools that genuinely satisfy a well-thought-out set of Selingo’s curated criteria. He blends data, interviews, and his own professional experience to present a list of colleges (at the back of the book), all the while emphasizing that success depends less on where you go than on how you go to college. For example, he highlights schools with strong student engagement, including internship assistance, skill development, and structured mentoring. He also notes with some nostalgia that college has shifted from being a time of exploration to being primarily considered as a springboard to a career. 

Many of his observations align with what we see in our own work. We especially appreciated the data on how many students often cling to overly aspirational college lists filled with too many reach schools, a tendency fueled by overconfidence bias and grade inflation. One of the strengths of our business is the ability to help families course-correct earlier than they might otherwise. He also affirms our view that, despite the coming demographic cliff, top universities are unlikely to struggle. Rising cost of attendance, particularly for “donut hole” families (middle to upper-middle-class households), are leading more families to trade prestige for merit aid.

Beyond endowments, the author offers additional ways to assess a college’s financial health. Birmingham-Southern College serves as the opening example in Chapter 9, and his summary provided a fuller picture than we had previously known. We also learned that Moody’s Investors Service gives credit ratings to colleges. He cites that net revenue is falling at 36% of private colleges and 27% of public universities. Smaller private schools often rely on higher charges for room and board as an additional revenue stream, which explains why many require students to live on campus. Of course, heavy merit aid offerings can sometimes indicate financial instability. Public universities, he argues, enjoy an advantage in this area because state funding can serve as a stabilizing force. Persistent deficits and drawing on endowments for daily operations, by contrast, are red flags. On page 211, he even shows how to approximate net tuition revenue per student (an indication of financial health) using the Common Data Set.

Though perhaps a stretch to recommend to our families, Selingo suggests combing through LinkedIn data on college graduates by major to gauge job placement from a particular school. He also reminds readers that while technical degrees often yield higher starting salaries, those skills can lose relevance if not kept current, whereas liberal arts graduates often see steady, long-term salary growth, and are eventually able to catch. At various points, he seems reluctant to swallow the fact that the economic payoff of a bachelor’s degree still tends to be highest from very prestigious institutions.

Selingo argues in favor of internships and obtaining marketable skills, sometimes gained through certificate programs completed alongside a degree, as two of the most effective ways to maximize the career value of college. These points may sound obvious, but he provides good evidence to back them up.

We felt validated to see Santa Clara, Bentley University, Berry College, and Denison on his Hidden Values List. We were less impressed with his breakout regionals list (George Mason, Georgia Southern), but depending on where you live and plan to work, they could make sense. His Large Leaders list was pretty extensive and included colleges that routinely make MCA college lists, such as Clemson, Colorado State, Miami of Ohio, SMU, Kentucky, VA Tech, and Oklahoma. 

Parent Newsletter: Fall Edition 2025

If you haven’t had the chance to make a fall advising appointment, please make one now. We want to support students with the resources needed to prioritize their academics, the most important element of their college applications.

COLLEGE ADMISSION NEWS AND ADVICE

Standardized Testing and Policy Shifts: About 75% of colleges remain test-optional, but many selective schools, including Yale, Dartmouth, and Brown, have reinstated SAT/ACT requirements. Others such as UPenn, Stanford, and Cornell will require scores for this fall’s applicants. Even at test-optional colleges, students are submitting scores more often, with score submission rising 11%. In the SEC, the majority of colleges remain test-optional. However, Vanderbilt, UGA, University of Texas at Austin, University of Tennessee, and the University of Florida are not. Beginning next year, Auburn will no longer best test-optional either. Depending your college list, this trend can make it even more important to dedicate time to test prep.

Application Volume and Student Trends: The Common App reported a 4% rise in unique applicants (now 1.39 million) and a 6% increase in total applications (over 8.5 million). On average, students are now submitting about six applications each. Early decision applications rose by 17% and early action applications went up 4%. Applications to public schools surged 10%, especially in Southern and Southwestern states, compared to a modest 3% increase at private institutions. Last year, nearly 8,000 U.S. students applied to United Kingdom undergraduate programs, a 13.9% jump. Some argue this spike correlates with federal pressure on U.S. elite institutions, however, we believe it has more to do with the high cost of American college tuition.

The Demographic Cliff: The “demographic cliff” refers to a projected 15% drop in U.S. high school graduates starting around 2026–2029, a lagged effect of the 2008 financial crisis birth decline. Lower- and mid-tier private colleges, especially in the Midwest and Northeast, are already facing smaller applicant pools. Many affected schools are increasing acceptance rates, deepening merit aid, and some are on the brink of closure. The drop-off in absolute numbers begins meaningfully with the Class of 2030–2032. However, even a 10–15% dip in U.S. applicants will not move Harvard’s acceptance rate from 3.6% to 6%. The only real relief is likely to be at the margins of selective (but non-Ivy) tuition-dependent private schools. Also note that public flagships in high-growth regions such as Texas, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and Arizona are not seeing declines; applications in these states are booming.

Artificial Intelligence in Admissions: To assist admissions officers in evaluating applications, NC State and Texas A&M–Commerce employ the AI software tool Sia to extract insights about a student’s coursework, grades, and credit hours. Meanwhile, UNC Chapel Hill and Virginia Tech have also communicated that their admissions departments use AI to score essays. Enroll ML is another sophisticated AI tool that aims to help colleges improve their enrollment funnel, thereby increasing their yield rate (the percentage of accepted students who actually enroll, a figure that colleges play extremely close attention to).The writing is on the wall that AI will soon play a role in every interaction between colleges and applicants.

REFLECTION CORNER

Over the next couple of weeks, ask your student to think through these questions:

This semester, where will I be able to show consistency, initiative, or growth?

Are there any small steps I can take to deepen an existing activity?

What will be this fall’s biggest challenges? What support do I need to succeed?

Warm regards,

The MCA Team

Parent Newsletter: Summer Edition 2025

As the school year draws to a close, there’s no better time to encourage your student to spend a few extra minutes after class, practice, or meetings thanking the adults in your life for their guidance this year. Positive relationships with mentors demonstrate maturity and gratitude, and also lay the groundwork for seeking their support in recommendation letters.

College Admissions News

  • In contrast to the COVID years of blurry test optional policies, testing is definitely back, and it has reshaped students’ odds of admission at many schools. The Common App recently reported: “Test score reporting applicants are up for the first time since 2021–22, outpacing non-reporters.” Submitting competitive test scores relative to the average admitted student scores is advantageous to students, and has finally been more explicitly acknowledged by selective colleges. For a deeper dive, watch this new YouTube presentation by Applerouth Testing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mj3QD_OaT5E

  • Federal funding funneled to Harvard and other colleges is under scrutiny in the current political landscape. Given the millions of dollars at stake, lasting resolutions to these issues may take years to untangle in the courts. If you are interested in the intricacies of these financials, watch this insightful video: https://www.wsj.com/video/series/wsj-explains/former-college-president-explains-funding-strategies-behind-universities/9FD9B82D-8BAD-49B8-BA7A-5A08A8CA74D6

  • Federal funding is not the only financial matter impacting colleges. International student applications, often representing full-pay students and therefore a key source of revenue for schools, stagnated this year. All the more reason to ensure that your college list contains schools with healthy endowments that can endure fluctuations in international student enrollment.

  • Selecting “Target” schools for a college list has become increasingly difficult. Schools like Rice, NYU, and Notre Dame received record-breaking applications and are no longer considered backups for students targeting elite admissions. According to Forbes, “they are reach schools in their own right.”

  • Furthermore, “While universities maintain focus on admitting applicants with distinct core interests, they also reinforced the value of interdisciplinarity amongst applicants this admissions cycle.” We have noticed colleges highlighting admitted students who are able to convincingly connect divergent themes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherrim/2025/03/28/the-results-are-in-here-are-ivy-league-and-top-college-admissions-rates-for-the-class-of-2029/

Recommended Reading

  • If you don’t mind being a little unnerved (yet again) by big data in college admissions, The New York Times published this article on May 1st: “Colleges Know How Much You’re Willing to Pay. Here’s How.” https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/01/business/college-tuition-price-consultants.html?searchResultPosition=194

  • Our general advice column from the May edition of Over the Mountain Journal can be found here on page 18): https://issuu.com/otmj/docs/reduced_size_pdf_6baf3d88a6e4df?fr=xKAE9_zMzMw

  • Explore this unique college comparison tool published by the New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/college-mobility/

Wishing you a fantastic start to your summer!

Warm regards,

The MCA Team

Parent Newsletter: Spring Edition 2025

College admissions offices are wrapping up their reading season, the term used for the application review cycle. Once admissions decisions are finalized, many admissions reps hit the road to visit schools in their territory. As a result, these reps are often more accessible during this recruiting and marketing period, making this a great window of time for 9th-11th graders to be on the lookout for college visits to their high school or for sending out an introduction email with thoughtful questions. Please let us know if you have questions about making these valuable connections!

College Admissions News

  • For the fourth straight year, the Common Application essay prompts for the fall 2025 admissions cycle will remain the same. Juniors should read through the prompts this spring and be on the look out for our upcoming guidance on brainstorming and essay appointments. https://www.commonapp.org/blog/announcing-2025-2026-common-app-essay-prompts

  • On the subject of college essays, a new Cornell study created 25k AI-generated essay responses and found that on average they used “longer words (six or more letters) than human writers. Also, AI-generated writing tended to have less variety than essays written by humans,” so they sound much flatter and more generic than the ones written by real applicants. https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2024/10/ai-generated-college-admissions-essays-sound-male-privileged

  • The ACT recently announced that they will begin offering a digital version this fall. We will be sending our insights on the nuances of these changes and a comparison with the changes to the SAT after spring break. https://www.act.org/content/act/en/products-and-services/the-act/test-changes/online-testing.html

  • The Atlantic just reported that, since the elimination of affirmative action, the anticipated decline in diversity has not materialized as expected. Several elite universities have reported stable or even increased enrollments of Black and Latino students. For instance, institutions such as Yale, Dartmouth, and Northwestern have seen rises in Black and Latino student enrollments, while Princeton and Duke have maintained consistent demographic figures. This trend suggests that these universities may be employing alternative strategies, such as data from the Opportunity Atlas, to uphold diversity without directly considering race in their admissions processes. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/02/affirmative-action-yale-admissions/681541/

Recommended Reading

  • College ROI (Return on Investment) is a metric that has come into sharper focus over the past few years. The WSJ and Georgetown have shared ranking tools, and now FREOPP has developed one. Takeaway: ROI can vary significantly at the same school for different majors: https://freopp.org/roi-undergraduate/

Warm regards,

The MCA Team